Walter P.
St. Louis, Missouri

Mark Guerrero
Dallas, TX

Charles Snell
Beverly Hills, CA

Robert Stroz
Reno, NV

Stock Research – National Intelligence Estimate – Al-Qaeda back stronger then ever – Who’s Kidding Who???

July 17, 2007

The Intelligence apparatus of the United States is required to publish what is referred to as the National Intelligence Estimate. It is a distillation of the major intelligence issues facing the United States as seen through the eyes of some 17 different intelligence organizations. One of the purposes of the National Intelligence Estimate is to CYA. If something bad were to happen, at the very least the bureaucracy could then point back and say, see, it was in the Estimate.

This latest one is very special in that you must read between the lines to understand what it is saying. Some of the key concepts are “US Homeland will face a persistent and evolving terrorist threat over the next three years. …Main threat comes from Islamic terrorist groups and cells, especially Al-Qaeda. Group has protected or regenerated key elements of its Homeland attack capability, including: as a safe haven in the Pakistan Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). We assess that..Al-Qaeda’s association with Al-Qaeda Iraq’s helps Al-Qaeda to energize the broader Sunni extremist community, raise resources, and to recruit and indoctrinate operatives, including for Homeland (meaning United States) attacks.”

This is not what you said Two Years Ago, Mr. President!!!!

In the last National Intelligence Estimate two years ago, Al-Qaeda was on the run, broken up, being smashed. There was supposedly a direct link between the war in Iraq and the lessened threat level presented by Al-Qaeda. This is why we say; you must read between the lines of the latest estimate. If things were so bad for Al-Qaeda just two years ago, how could they have to quote the document, “REGENERATED”? What were we doing, sleeping at the switch.

Let’s Look Back a Moment

1) We had Bin Laden trapped in Afghanistan after the 9/11 tragedy, absolutely trapped. Instead of finishing the man and his people with our own troops who were present and capable of doing the job, we paid the local trial leaders in American $100 dollar bills to do the job. Bin Laden paid them more, and escaped successfully with his underlings to the safety of the Pakistani mountains where he is today.

2) We have given President Musharraf over $10 billion in cold American currency to finish Bin Laden and he never got the job done. He constantly gives lip service to the task, but nothing happens. In fact, Musharraf cut a deal with the chieftains protecting Bin Laden to let them administer these provinces, and now the chiefs have not adhered to their side of the bargain.

3) President Bush has always stated that this country is safer because we went to war in Iraq. This latest National Intelligence Estimate does not agree with that assessment, although the intelligence agencies will not say so directly. The fact that Al-Qaeda has reconstituted itself, and is bigger and stronger than ever, clearly tells you that the resources, which have gone into Iraq, were a diversion from the real war on terrorism, which is Al-Qaeda.

The word in Washington circles is that the President wishes NOW that he had embraced the findings of the Baker-Hamilton bipartisan study group on Iraq, known as the Iraq Study Group. He can’t do it now, that opportunity has passed. He does have another opportunity however. Al-Qaeda is stronger then ever in the mountain areas of Pakistan. The President must consider shifting his attention from Iraq towards the real threat – Bin Laden and his followers who are at the moment free from Pakistani and American military might.

The President can choose to do what former President Reagan did when we lost 200 plus marines in Lebanon to a suicide bomber. Reagan within a week ordered the invasion of Granada, a small Caribbean island that was being run by a communist friendly dictator.

President Bush NOW can choose to focus back on Al-Qaeda, who are the people directly responsible for the largest terrorist attack on America in our history. By doing so, he will also right himself with the feelings of 70% of America, who now stand against him in all polls. This may well be his last opportunity to shift policies in a very face-saving way prior to his retirement from office.

Other Considerations

The insurgency in Iraq is similar to Viet Nam in one major aspect. These people really don’t care how long the period of violence lasts. It doesn’t matter to them if it goes on another 5, 10, or 15 years. The United States however has always been GOAL DRIVEN as a society. Whether it’s taking Berlin during World War II, or flying a man to the moon, this country has never been successful at open-ended projects. Iraq is open ended, and the American people will not tolerate such policies indefinitely. This is why the President’s support on Iraq has only eroded over the last four years, without a single month of ascent.

The second consideration is that in the end, what is going to happen is going to happen. Unless we are prepared to kill or imprison the last insurgent, these people will wait us out, until we leave Iraq. At some point whether it’s under this President or the next, we must exit that country. The current Iraqi leadership according to our President is failing in meeting the targets that have been set for it, and agreed to by them.

We suggest this is intentional. The current Shia led government is in the majority. At some point when we leave, the Shia will control Iraq, and that government will be friendly to Iran, which is also Shia led. This is now unavoidable. We got rid of one dictator Saddam Hussein, for another dictatorship that will come. It’s unfortunate, but once you start a war, you cannot always manage the consequences, and outcomes.

A third consideration is that we have always been told that we have 140,000 American troops in Iraq. Even the press agrees and publishes this completely miss-stated number. The truth is that we have an additional 100,000 extremely well trained former military personnel disguised as civilian contractors. The Blackwater Group in North Carolina employs many of these so-called civilian contractors.

These are Special Forces, ex-marines, and assorted well-skilled individuals that are not under direct American military command in Iraq, but instead answer to the Pentagon through intermediaries. Our leaders figured out a couple of years ago, that we could wage wars, and use well-paid surrogates, almost mercenary type individuals to supplement our own uniformed military personnel. Deaths and injuries would not be reported in the official count that the press reports.

With about 240,000 personnel in Iraq, we are still having a difficult time inflicting our will on the enemy. It’s telling you something. This private army is not under the rules of engagement of American soldiers in uniform, and American military personnel cannot arrest them.

Summary

Its clear our own intelligence agencies through the National Intelligence Estimate are telling us that our enemy Al-Qaeda is on the resurgence. The rise of Bin Laden’s people is unabated by our efforts which have suffered through our resource allocation in Iraq. The President should view this problem as an opportunity to re-direct America’s focus towards Bin Laden. He could then bring down the intensity level in Iraq where our continued presence may be fueling overall Moslem resentment towards the West.

The simple reality is that America won the war in Iraq in less than 40 days of combat. Our problem is not the war, but the post-war problem. We cannot inflict democracy on a people who plain and simple do not want it. President Bush was completely correct in his assessment when he said that Thomas Jefferson doesn’t exist in Iraq. Not everybody on this planet desires individual freedom, a notion I would not have believed 20 years ago, yet it seems true.

Finally, the war in Iraq has broken our army. We are fighting a war with the American National Guard. This was never the intent of the National Guard, but with insufficient troops to fight a war using the traditional army (volunteers), our government has to resort to using the Guard. This is why we are witnessing a disproportionate number of American officers including captains, majors, and colonels dying in this war. They are National Guardsmen. This cannot go on several more years.

Goodbye and Good Luck

Richard Stoyeck
StocksAtBottom.com