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The stock market is a discounting mechanism. As a rule it doesn’t tell you where the world is at today. It tells you what the world will be like many months from now, usually about 6 months in advance. With the rapid movement up in the broad indices, the market is telling you that America is coming out of recession and going into a more prosperous environment. People can argue this conclusion all day long, day in and day out. The market is already telling you what is going to happen. For what we think it’s worth, the passage of the President’s tax program is setting up the economy for the 2004 re-election attempt. The Congress has authorized a trillion dollar increase in the national debt to fund both the budget and the accompanying tax cuts. A trillion dollars is an unimaginable amount of money, even to big spenders like the United States Congress. It will get the job done of moving the economy. Of this, there is no doubt in our mind. Today let’s talk about Advanced Micro Devices which we have removed from the Stock Table. The question is why? Let’s give you our thoughts on the subject. The stock is trading at bout 15 times what we project 04 earnings to be. That’s great. We think 50 cents is doable; the street says more like 26 cents. The group is trading at about 25 times earnings. The stock is cheap on the basis of PE ratios. The stock trades at about 1.1 times the real book value. The group is trading at about 4 times book value. On the basis of what just told you this stock should have doubled already and it hasn’t. We are unwilling to wait because we think the company maybe betting its future and its business model on the next set of processors that it is developing. Intel is in the position, because they dominate to be able to set the pricing for AMD’s products. We are resistant to being involved with a company that is putting its destiny in the hands of others. Between that notion and the refinancing of debt that must take place in the next few quarters, we just no longer want to be there. It is far better to pick up the marbles that are on the table and go play in another game where we have more control. Keep in mind that we are basically going out even on this stock . Your Friends At StocksAtBottom.com JOIN NOW |
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