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Sitting Around the Table August 8, 2003

Dow Jones 9166
NASDAQ 1645
S&P 500 976

August 8, 2003

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Where are we?

This market continues in a sideways pattern. That's just fine with us. We don't need a rising market to help you make money. A sideways market works great for us. What you don't want is a collapsing market. In a period of collapse, investors both amateur and professional, lose their nerve. That loss of nerve throws logic out the window. Right now we have a market that is waiting for news one way or another. Good political and or economic news would move the market higher. We may not get that for a while.

Iraq is stabilized but going nowhere. The almost daily loss of soldiers will begin to wear thin on the American people in the next couple of months. The Democratic challengers will use surrogates to directly attack the President's policies and they will have some measure of success with it. The market may react.

It's interesting to note that if there is one industry where we outperform the next ten countries of the world combined, it would be Hollywood, media, news dissemination. Yet in Iraq, we are failing miserably in this area. You would think that somebody would get the message. It just goes to show you how government can screw up something so obvious. We should certainly be dominating the propaganda war in Iraq. We are told that the American sponsored media channels in that country are so boring, that the American in charge had to resign from his post last week.

This was also true of Radio Free Europe (RFE) during the war against Communism for 50 years. We did a terrible job getting our viewpoint across. Finally, during the Reagan administration, they appointed Frank Shakespeare as director of RFE. He was a professional and it made all the difference in the world. Let's talk about a couple of stocks. By the way, let's mention it again, that if you see some of discussions in the news or magazines or on television regarding StocksAtBottom.com, please ignore it. We are involved with media solely for public relations value. You can't go out and buy anything that we or anyone else might talk about in print or any other mass media channel. Please only take to heart what we write to you directly. What we write about to you directly is what we will be following up on. We promise that. Listening to what is in the media can cost you a fortune in the market. Now how about those stocks?


Kohl's (KSS) $60.11

Wow, what a profit on this magnificent company. The Street loves the stock, and if there is any problem, it's that the Street loves the stock. Once everybody gets on board, who's left to push it higher? We have a 20% move from the last week in July. At some point we have to jettison the position from the Stock Table. It certainly looks and feels like it has more left in it. Let's ride it a while longer and see.


IBM (IBM) $80.42

Forget about the pension litigation. It will never hit the income statement anyway, so who cares. With about $5 next year coming in this stock, it isn't staying at $80. How can it? This stock has a $100 to $110 written all over it. Do you really think this economy is going to come back and IBM not participate.


AOL time Warner (AOL) $15.21

We think it's going into the $20's folks. AOL is riding a crest of great movie news. Many of these movies will turn into sequels, and then the sequels will turn into more sequels. We know they are losing AOL subscribers, but we give the AOL internet division zero value in our computation of what this company is worth. We think this one goes into the $20's also, and it has very little downside risk in our opinion. They certainly should be smart enough to drop AOL from their name and just go with Time Warner.


UnumProvident (UNM) $13.85

Finally it looks like this one is starting to catch on. You can still own it under our buy up to price and you should take a look at this stock.


Newell Rubbermaid (NWL) $23.44

We think it's bottomed after a negative announcement last week. You must be patient to own this stock, but at a very low price earnings ratio based on pretty reliable earnings, this stock should move into the $30's in the next couple of quarters. Next year, the number could be closer to $40 once a couple of positive quarters come out to please institutional investors.


Liberty Media (L) $10.84

This company is transforming itself from a holding company into an operating company. It sells at a marked discount to the sum of its various parts, half of which are publicly traded companies. We think as the Street realizes that Chairman John Malone is going operational, the stock takes off again. The problem will be selling this stock too early. John Malone is one smooth operator.


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